Bitcoin Price Analysis: Will BTC Fall to the $40K Level?

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price sits at $54,119, marking a daily decline of 4.1% and a 7.05% drop over the past week.

Following a surge due to positive employment data, Bitcoin saw a sharp correction, leading some analysts to suggest that BTC could dip to the $40,000 mark.

Impact of Employment Data on Bitcoin and Crypto Markets

The non-farm payroll data came in below expectations, with just 142,000 new jobs, which has boosted hopes for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Such a move would typically be bullish for Bitcoin and the wider crypto market.

However, there’s growing concern that the market has already priced in these developments, possibly leaving Bitcoin without a strong enough catalyst to sustain its recent gains.

Declining Trading Volume and ETF Inflows

Another factor weighing on Bitcoin is the decline in trading volumes and a slowdown in ETF inflows. ETFs have reported seven consecutive days of net outflows, prompting some analysts to warn that BTC could fall below $50,000 in the near term.

Conflicting Market Predictions: Will Bitcoin Hold?

Despite expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, which usually provides upward momentum, the market appears conflicted. If the interest rate cuts and other factors, such as political developments, have already been priced in, Bitcoin’s bullish trend for 2024 might have already peaked.

Technical Analysis: Bitcoin’s Next Support Levels

Zooming out from short-term fluctuations, Bitcoin remains on a downward trajectory since its peak in March. The latest downturn began on August 26th, when BTC was rejected at the $64,964 level, setting the stage for its current bearish trend.

Bitcoin has now breached a crucial support level at $55,000. The next major support lies at $52,500, and losing this level could push BTC towards a stronger support zone near $48,000.

However, if bulls can regain momentum and push the price back above $55,000, it could signal that the worst of the correction is over. The next key resistance to watch is $57,000, followed by the critical $59,000 level. Breaking above $59,000 would push Bitcoin above the 200-day moving average, which would be a strong signal of recovery.

RSI Indicates a Potential Rebound

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 30.7, suggesting that Bitcoin is approaching oversold conditions. This could open the door for a potential rebound in the coming days.

Key Economic Data and Bitcoin’s Future

Several economic factors could influence Bitcoin’s trajectory moving forward. Notably, ADP’s private payroll data showed the weakest growth since 2021, stoking fears of a recession. This could increase the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates to prevent further economic slowdown.

Some analysts argue that the market may have already priced in both the rate cuts and political shifts, such as Donald Trump’s lead over Kamala Harris in the U.S. presidential race. If this is true, the bullish momentum seen earlier in 2024 may have already run its course.

According to the FedWatch tool, markets currently price in a 59% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which will play a crucial role in Bitcoin’s near-term price action.