Will Bitcoin Fall if Biden Is No Longer a Candidate by November?

The political future of Joe Biden and his candidacy for re-election in 2024 have been subjects of speculation within the Democratic Party, especially after his performance in the recent debate against Donald Trump. This scenario has led many to question whether a change in candidate could be the solution to revitalize the party’s chances in the upcoming elections.

At the same time, it raises the question of whether such a change could affect Bitcoin purchases before November, given Donald Trump’s growing interest in cryptocurrencies, positioning himself as a pro-cryptocurrency advocate in his election campaign.

Bitcoin Purchases Depend on Trump’s Opponent

If Biden remains a candidate for re-election as president, it benefits Bitcoin, as we have seen and is well known by everyone to date. However, the potential departure of Biden as the elected candidate introduces a new variable into the equation. Let’s address this issue in the following points.

Current Political Context

Joe Biden, the oldest president in U.S. history, faced criticism for his performance in the June 27 debate, where many saw him as weak and unconvincing. This perception has fueled doubts about his ability to effectively compete against Trump in the November elections.

Recent polls indicate that a significant portion of Democratic voters, up to two-thirds, are calling for Biden to withdraw from the race and make room for a younger and more energetic candidate. This sentiment within the party underscores the growing concern over Biden’s ability to lead a successful campaign against a formidable opponent like Trump.

The Democratic Party has scheduled its national convention in August, where the candidate nomination will be formalized. Although it is technically possible to replace Biden, it would be a complicated and unprecedented process. The logistics and political ramifications of such a move would require careful consideration and strategic planning.

Experts have pointed out that for this to happen, Biden would need to decide to withdraw, opening the door to other candidates like Vice President Kamala Harris or California Governor Gavin Newsom. Both Harris and Newsom have significant political capital and could potentially rejuvenate the Democratic ticket.

Implications of a Candidate Change

If the Democrats decide to change their candidate, the implications could be significant not only for U.S. politics but also for the cryptocurrency market, particularly for Bitcoin. Political uncertainty tends to influence financial markets, and a change in candidacy could generate short-term volatility.

However, a new candidate might have a better chance of winning the November elections. If this new, younger, and more capable candidate also maintains a less proactive policy toward cryptocurrencies than their rival, Donald Trump, the situation could complicate Bitcoin’s price rise, as has been the trend until recently, especially since Trump survived the recent attack. This scenario presents a complex interplay between political dynamics and market behavior.

Summary of Effects on the Bitcoin Market

Let’s summarize the key points:

1. Economic Uncertainty: A candidate change could create uncertainty about future economic policies (anti-inflation measures, etc.), which could affect investor confidence in digital assets. As mentioned earlier, if the new candidate is less favorable toward cryptocurrencies than Trump is at the moment, it could impact Bitcoin. The market’s response to such uncertainty could manifest in various ways, including heightened volatility and shifts in investment strategies.
2. Cryptocurrency Regulation: Depending on who the new candidate is, policies towards cryptocurrencies could change. A candidate more favorable to cryptocurrency regulation could boost market confidence, while a more restrictive approach could discourage Bitcoin investments. Currently, the Democrats are known to be less favorable towards cryptocurrencies than the Republican Party. This regulatory uncertainty could have a profound impact on the market, influencing both short-term trading and long-term investment decisions.
3. Market Sentiment: The perception that a stronger Democratic candidate could lead to a victory over Trump, weakening interest in Bitcoin. Investors tend to react to political news, and a change perceived as negative could lead to a decrease in Bitcoin purchases before the elections. Market sentiment is a powerful driver of asset prices, and the potential for a significant political shift could lead to rapid changes in market behavior.

The Democratic Party’s Response

Despite internal pressures, many Democratic leaders have expressed their support for Biden. Gavin Newsom, for example, stated that it is not the time to turn their backs on the president because of the poorly received debate. However, growing pressure on Biden to reconsider his position could force the party to reevaluate its strategy. The internal dynamics of the party will play a crucial role in determining the path forward.

If Biden decides to continue, the Democratic Party will likely need to implement effective strategies to revitalize his campaign. This includes addressing the concerns raised by party members and voters alike, and ensuring that the campaign is robust and well-coordinated. This is a matter for the U.S. Democratic Party, but we already know Bitcoin’s response: favorable, as it seems Biden is not a strong rival for Trump, who is currently the pro-cryptocurrency advocate.

The Relationship Between Politics and Cryptocurrencies

The relationship between politics and the cryptocurrency market is complex. Market movements often respond to political promises, and the possibility of a new candidate can be a catalyst for changes in market behavior. In a context where inflation and economic uncertainty are predominant concerns, political decisions can significantly impact Bitcoin’s future. Additionally, regulatory developments and policy changes related to cryptocurrencies can have immediate and long-term effects on the market.

Inflation and Economic Policies

Inflation is a major concern for investors, and political decisions that affect inflation rates can have a direct impact on the cryptocurrency market. If a new candidate promises aggressive measures to combat inflation, this could influence investor confidence and market stability. Conversely, uncertainty regarding future economic policies could lead to increased volatility.

Regulatory Landscape

Regulatory changes are another critical factor. Cryptocurrencies operate within a regulatory framework that can vary significantly depending on political leadership. A new candidate with a favorable stance towards cryptocurrencies could promote innovation and growth within the industry, while a more conservative approach could stifle development and investment. The balance between regulation and innovation is a delicate one, and political leadership plays a crucial role in maintaining it.

Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior

Market sentiment is heavily influenced by political stability and leadership. Investors often react to political developments, and the potential for a significant change in leadership can lead to shifts in market behavior. The perception of political stability and the anticipated policies of a new candidate can either bolster or undermine market confidence.

Long-Term Implications

Conclusion

The possibility of the Democrats changing their candidate for the White House is a hot topic that could have significant repercussions for both U.S. politics and the Bitcoin market. The uncertainty generated by a leadership change could lead to decreased interest in cryptocurrency purchases, as investors remain unsure of who the replacement candidate will be and what their stance on digital assets will be. A complete unknown that worries investors, as a new candidate would have a better chance of winning than Biden, which would make it more difficult for Trump, the current pro-cryptocurrency advocate, to regain the White House.

As we approach the Democratic Party’s national convention, it will be crucial to observe how these events unfold and how they affect the electoral landscape. Biden’s decision on his candidacy will be crucial not only for his political future but also for the direction of the cryptocurrency market in the coming months.

Although, as indicated by betting markets like Polymarket, Biden’s chances of continuing his political career are slim. The interplay between political dynamics and market behavior will be closely watched by investors and analysts alike.